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Silver Bulletin

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Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.

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Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

What is agency — and how can you get more of it?

What is agency — and how can you get more of it?

My interview with Cate Hall about her new book, "You Can Just Do Things."

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

The DSA sweet spot: highly educated, downwardly mobile

The DSA sweet spot: highly educated, downwardly mobile

Education and economic security are usually correlated. But where the relationship breaks down is fertile territory for the new left.

Silver Bulletin
• Joseph George

The World Cup champion will be one of the greatest teams ever

The World Cup champion will be one of the greatest teams ever

Spain is chasing a historic streak. Argentina is chasing back-to-back titles. Whoever wins Sunday will join the highest tier in international soccer history.

Silver Bulletin
• Eli McKown-Dawson

Can the establishment stop Abdul El-Sayed?

Can the establishment stop Abdul El-Sayed?

Haley Stevens has rebounded since Mallory McMorrow dropped out. But polls of both the Michigan primary and the general election don't tell a consistent story.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

12 questions for the center-left

12 questions for the center-left

The center-left offers an alternative to both the left and the Democratic “establishment.” But it’s losing influence — and struggling to define itself.

Silver Bulletin
• Joseph George

The Silver Bulletin World Cup quarterfinals preview

The Silver Bulletin World Cup quarterfinals preview

PELE’s forecast for the final eight: France leads a tight field, Argentina has the easiest path, and Norway has a real chance to crash the party.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

How popular is Donald Trump?

How popular is Donald Trump?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?

Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?

Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

How popular is the Iran War?

How popular is the Iran War?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for the ongoing conflict.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

The game theory of replacing Graham Platner

The game theory of replacing Graham Platner

20 thoughts on who really has the leverage in Maine — and what Democrats should do next.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

2026 World Cup: Knockout stage predictions

2026 World Cup: Knockout stage predictions

Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Odds for all 48 teams and 104 matches, powered by 100,000 simulations from PELE, Silver Bulletin's new soccer model.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

PELE International Football Rankings ⚽

PELE International Football Rankings ⚽

What happens when you blend 150+ years of soccer history with player market values into a brand-new model? Rankings, ratings and match projections for all 211 FIFA teams.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

Don't invest your political capital in sketchy people

Don't invest your political capital in sketchy people

Political parties don’t get to wait for courtroom certainty. Graham Platner has given Democrats far too many reasons to cut their losses.

Silver Bulletin
• Eli McKown-Dawson

America used to be exceptionally patriotic. Now we're below average.

America used to be exceptionally patriotic. Now we're below average.

Most Americans still love their country, but patriotism is in sharp decline.

Silver Bulletin
• Joel Wertheimer

Is the vibecession real — or is the survey broken?

Is the vibecession real — or is the survey broken?

A shift to online polling and undersampling of Republicans are skewing America’s most-cited measure of consumer sentiment.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

The World Cup knockout round is here. Which team got the luckiest draw?

The World Cup knockout round is here. Which team got the luckiest draw?

It's not the United States — though the USMNT's path is pretty favorable, too.

Silver Bulletin
• Joseph George

Are England the New York Knicks?

Are England the New York Knicks?

Another team just ended a half-century curse by becoming more than the sum of its parts. England's always had the talent — can it finally do the same?

Silver Bulletin
• Joseph George

The Bucks traded Giannis too late

The Bucks traded Giannis too late

The deal is "ehh, fine" for both Miami and Milwaukee. But Giannis to Boston would have had a seismic effect on the league.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

What all 48 World Cup teams have at stake

What all 48 World Cup teams have at stake

Only 7 teams have clinched advancement --- and almost everyone has a lot to play for in their final match.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

What is Gavin Newsom doing?

What is Gavin Newsom doing?

Losing support in polls, the governor is leaning into his role as the avatar of an unpopular Democratic establishment.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

How Trump conquered the Republican Party

How Trump conquered the Republican Party

My interview with Seth Masket on his new book about the GOP

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

A bigger World Cup is a better World Cup

A bigger World Cup is a better World Cup

This tournament has been great so far. But 48 teams create an awkward bracket. A 64-team World Cup is the inevitable outcome — and maybe the better one.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

How popular is Elon Musk?

How popular is Elon Musk?

Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

Knicks in 5!

Knicks in 5!

5 thoughts about a 53-year wait from a guy who used to live across the street from Madison Square Garden.

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

The state of play in Maine

The race is a toss-up, or maybe still tilts Platner. But should it even be this close?

Silver Bulletin
• Nate Silver

What’s your team’s path to the World Cup title?

What’s your team’s path to the World Cup title?

And which group-stage matches are actually worth buying tickets to?