FeedCity: Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin
25 Oct 21:18 • Nate Silver

Let’s talk shop about every Senate race

When FLIPR and prediction markets disagree, which has the better case?

Silver Bulletin
23 Oct 17:18 • Eli McKown-Dawson

Do these Senate-governor splits make sense?

In Michigan, Jocelyn Benson is polling well ahead of Abdul El-Sayed. Do gaps like that tend to shrink on Election Day?

Silver Bulletin
22 Oct 19:12 • Nate Silver

Fake polls are a real problem

They’re nothing new, but they may be a growing threat. Plus, the story of the 2026 campaign through political ads in Still Counting EP7.

Silver Bulletin
20 Oct 23:03 • Nate Silver

My pet peeve about the polling error debate

Polling error is hard to predict when pollsters are constantly tinkering with the recipe.

Silver Bulletin
19 Oct 22:33 • Joseph George

Is Brock Purdy the NFL’s best quarterback?

“Mr. Irrelevant” has the NFL’s highest QBERT rating so far this season. It’s time to stop holding his draft position against him.

Silver Bulletin
17 Oct 19:45 • Nate Silver

The good, bad and ugly outcomes in the Senate

Can Democrats still win the Senate if the polls overestimate them? And how ugly could the map get for Republicans if the polls are wrong in the other direction?

Silver Bulletin
15 Oct 19:36 • Nate Silver

Welcome to midterm silly season 🤡

Still Couting EP 5

Silver Bulletin
15 Oct 16:06 • Nate Silver

FLIPR 2026 Governors forecast

Silver Bulletin's prediction for every gubernatorial election in 2026.

Silver Bulletin
15 Oct 16:06 • Nate Silver

FLIPR 2026 House forecast

Silver Bulletin's prediction for every House election in 2026.

Silver Bulletin
15 Oct 16:06 • Nate Silver

FLIPR 2026 Senate forecast

Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate election in 2026.

Silver Bulletin
13 Oct 18:51 • Eli McKown-Dawson

Will Republican gerrymanders become dummymanders?

Democrats are poised to make big gains in the House. But will they be enough to make Republicans regret redistricting?

Silver Bulletin
09 Oct 18:06 • Nate Silver

Could Minnesota spoil the blue wave?

You’ve heard a lot about Michigan. But Democrats may have bigger problems in states where voters don’t trust their governance.

Silver Bulletin
08 Oct 13:57 • Nate Silver

The left’s fortunes have been rising. Will 2028 be AOC’s moment?

Still Counting EP5 is out! Here’s why I chose Ocasio-Cortez in our 2028 Democratic primary draft.

Silver Bulletin
06 Oct 18:00 • Eli McKown-Dawson

The Democrats’ AI primary is heating up

The 2028 nomination race begins as soon as the midterms are over. Some Democrats like Gavin Newsom are scrambling to reformulate their positions.

Silver Bulletin
03 Oct 17:06 • Nate Silver

What if the polls are wrong again?

Systematic polling errors are common. Polls might be biased against Republicans again. Or against Democrats. Predicting which way they’ll miss is the hard part.

Silver Bulletin
01 Oct 11:57 • Nate Silver

Why did Ohio stop being a swing state?

Still Counting EP4 covers the Ohio and Maine Senate races. Plus, we’re reviving Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions (SBSQ).

Silver Bulletin
01 Oct 11:57 • Nate Silver

SBSQ reboot thread

Please ask your questions in the comments!

Silver Bulletin
29 Sep 23:21 • Nate Silver

Midterm waves are the rule, not the exception

Democrats have an increasingly large lead in the polls — and in FLIPR. But history says that shouldn’t be surprising.

Silver Bulletin
28 Sep 19:30 • Nate Silver

NBA Future of the Franchise Rankings 4.0

It won’t shock you to learn that the Spurs and Thunder have the brightest futures. But what about the rest of the league after a crazy offseason?

Silver Bulletin
24 Sep 15:15 • Nate Silver

The blue wave is mostly in red states. That’s a little weird.

Still Counting EP3. Plus some quick thoughts on that NYT poll in Maine.

Silver Bulletin
23 Sep 20:24 • Eli McKown-Dawson

Do Republicans really have a money advantage?

They have massive amounts of outside spending, but their candidates are consistently being outraised by Democrats.

Silver Bulletin
22 Sep 20:09 • Nate Silver

Diesel prices could crush Republicans in the heartland

Inflation in fuel prices is much higher in diesel-heavy farm states — which happen to coincide with competitive Senate races.

Silver Bulletin
20 Sep 19:12 • Nate Silver

Expert ratings are ignoring signs of a blue wave

Assuming we’re in a roughly neutral political environment doesn’t make sense given the history of the midterms, $4.50 gas or Trump’s dismal approval ratings.