Still Counting EP1 is out!

Our model mostly agrees with Vegas, but the differences are revealing. For instance, why does it feel so conflicted about the Rams?

Team ratings, playoff and Super Bowl odds, and forecasts of every upcoming game from Silver Bulletin's exclusive NFL model.

Way more detail than you probably wanted on Silver Bulletin's new NFL forecasting system.

Our advanced statistical ratings on every quarterback’s past, present, and future are back for the new NFL season.

Missouri’s new old map has diminished Republicans’ redistricting gains.

As Labor Day approaches, we’re entering the traditional stretch run of the campaign. But history says the national picture probably won’t change much before Election Day.

Our new podcast launches soon, and Silver Bulletin readers helped make it possible.

Democrats are almost certain to govern more Americans than Republicans, but can they flip swing states like Georgia?

Some of the skepticism about James Talarico’s chances amounts to superstition. But I have one lingering concern about our forecast in Texas.

In the Northeast, Midwest and West, it’s almost all upside for Democrats. But redistricting will hand Republicans some seats in the South.

They’re polling surprisingly strongly in some Senate races. But should you bet on those numbers falling back to earth? Plus, some quick thoughts on Alaska and Florida.

My chat with Jasmine Sun about what role data centers could play in the midterms, how the backlash caught Silicon Valley by surprise — and why Claude can be so weird.

There’s a 71 percent chance this is where control of the chamber is decided.

My chat with Galen Druke on Wisconsin, models, polls and prediction markets.

Our midterms model finds that polls, fundamentals and history all point toward a strong Democratic year. The House is theirs to lose, but winning four Senate seats is still a tall order.

Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate, House, and gubernatorial election in 2026.

And what changes we've made to the model for 2026.

Abdul El-Sayed’s apparent victory is a big win for the left — but a disaster for polling and a case study in poor expectations management.

Could anything save Republicans in the House? Plus, previewing tomorrow’s Michigan primary. And our midterms model is coming soon!

South Carolina will vote first, which could help moderates. But Michigan and Virginia may hold the real power.

My interview with Cate Hall about her new book, "You Can Just Do Things."

Education and economic security are usually correlated. But where the relationship breaks down is fertile territory for the new left.

Spain is chasing a historic streak. Argentina is chasing back-to-back titles. Whoever wins Sunday will join the highest tier in international soccer history.

Haley Stevens has rebounded since Mallory McMorrow dropped out. But polls of both the Michigan primary and the general election don't tell a consistent story.

The center-left offers an alternative to both the left and the Democratic “establishment.” But it’s losing influence — and struggling to define itself.

PELE’s forecast for the final eight: France leads a tight field, Argentina has the easiest path, and Norway has a real chance to crash the party.

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for the ongoing conflict.